What happened, where and when?
Heavy off-season rainfall started on 22 July 2023 and caused flash floods in multiple provinces in Afghanistan. By 24 July 2023, the flash floods affected 18 provinces: Badakhshan, Daikundi, Ghazni, Helmand, Kabul, Kandahar, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Logar, Maidan Wardak, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktia, Parwan, Uruzgan, and Zabul. Furthermore, the areas affected by the floods have already been experiencing acute humanitarian needs due to prolonged conflicts, droughts, and financial instability. The current disaster has exacerbated the severity of the situation for these vulnerable communities.
The Afghanistan Meteorological Department has issued red warnings, the highest level on a three-tier scale, for parts of eastern Bamyan, northern Ghazni, Khost, northern Logar, eastern Maidan Wardak, northeastern Paktia, northeastern Paktika, and southern Parwan. Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of storm water drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers are also vulnerable to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall (Source: http://www.amd.gov.af, 29 July 2023). These rains can cause further damage to infrastructure, road closures, and contamination with unexploded ordnance due to floods or landslides. As the assessment is ongoing and the likelihood of flash floods is recurring for the coming two weeks, there will be a need to move the propositioned emergency stocks and relief items to the sub-regional branches to ensure an effective response in a timely manner.
Scope and Scale
As of 30 July 2023, according to reports from various sources including the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS) and the Afghan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA), flash floods have led to the loss of 61 lives, left 24 people injured and six people missing. The province of Maidan Wardak is the most impacted and accounts for 37 of the 61 human lives lost. Based on the preliminary findings of the initial rapid assessment carried out by the ARCS, approximately 126,000 people have been affected by the disaster in 18 provinces. The flash floods have also partially or completely damaged 1,360 residential houses and washed away over 13,023 hectares of agricultural land and killed at least 1,128 livestock. People from the damaged householdsare currently living in the same affected area with their extended family or relatives. Currently, data is being triangulated with other humanitarian actors including ANDMA and with other cluster members.
Some of the provinces such as Badakhshan, Maidain Wardak and Nangahar have experienced such floods for the first time while others have experienced more severe floods this year than the ones in the past. The country is particularly vulnerable to variations in access to arable land and water due to drought that have been affecting the country for the last three consecutive years. New areas are experiencing floods due to dryness of land caused by drought for three consecutive years. Rain water cannot seep into the dry ground in such land causing severe floods. The communities in these areas are not accustomed to such events and have limited coping capacities to deal with such scale of events. All the affected communities were already going through hardship situation due to the compounded impacts of multiple factors (conflict, persistent impact of drought, extreme climate and seismic hazards, and reduced access to financial services) that had been affecting the whole county for more than 40 years. The unusual floods have exacerbated the existing vulnerability of the communities in these particular provinces. According to Assessments Capacities Project (ACAPS) report released in July 2023, an El Niño season started in June 2023 and is forecasted to persist until February 2024, with a high probability of displaying above-moderate strength. As a result of El Niño, Afghanistan which has already been facing humanitarian crises has experienced more severe and intense floods. On top of this ongoing flood situation, the condition may deteriorate with the seasonal temperature forecast for July–September 2023 which indicates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures, especially in the southern and central provinces. There is an increase in heavy rainfall events by 10-25 percentage over 30 years, and more regular drought cycles every 3-4 years.
Nearly 80 percentage of Afghans’ livelihoods come directly or indirectly from agriculture, and 58 percentage of the Afghan population is employed in the industry and has already been facing multiple challenges, including poverty and limited access to resources. Reports related to Afghanistan show an increase in the loss of lives and livelihoods over the last ten years.
By Zhao Xiaoxia, Yuan Lijuan
National Earthquake Response Support Service
Ministry of Emergency Management, China
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